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Russia’s “Neighborhood” Program

The War Against Terror Further Widens the Russia-US Divide

[September 10, 2007]

There was a loose link in the chain of renewed competition between Russia and America. Until recently, Russia's lone attempts to stop the extension of American military and economic presence in Eurasia were, at best, meeting with partial success. After the end of the Cold War, Russia no longer had the ideological basis to gather around itself not only those countries who play a serious role in Eurasia, but also the former Soviet countries who were in close cooperation with it within the CIS.

Russia's words against NATO expansion could not have been enough to motivate anti-American solidarity. Those countries, for whom maintaining good relations with Russia was a vital issue and an additional guarantee of security, started justifying their Euroatlantic leaning by repeating the words of those high-ranking NATO officials with their broad smiles – “NATO is no longer the alliance it was during the Cold War between two blocs.”

Today, however, it has become obvious that Russia now has the idea it needed to make its efforts to gather its neighbors around it more convincing, and this came from an opportunity presented by America itself (the decision to install American anti-missile systems in Europe and Asia). A convincing, and most importantly, mutually acceptable basis was found. Russia has now started its own “neighborhood” program.

Signs of an Arms Race in Europe

If after 2001 many people thought that the war against terror could lead to closer ties between the US and Russia and bridge the divide between them, today the anti-terror measures being taken are further distancing these two countries from each other.

It seems that overcoming this stage of difficult relations between the US and Russia is not going to be easy using diplomatic means alone. After a “free style” discussion among Bushes Senior and Junior and Vladimir Putin at the Bush family summerhouse in Kennebunkport, the US Congress approved the program to install the US missile shield in Eastern Europe.

The diplomatic mousetrap which Russia had set for the US was avoided as the proposal to jointly use the radiolocation station in Gabala was lost somewhere in the Russia-Azerbaijan and US-Azerbaijan discussions. A proposal to set up a modern anti-missile station on Russian territory jointly with NATO and make it the basis for a new approach to global security also remained unanswered. That proposal had also put the NATO member countries in an awkward position, because it made two things clear – first, that America was trying to install its military system in Poland, circumventing NATO, and second, that NATO was forced to openly ignore a proposal by Russia for military collaboration. A collaboration, the need for which was being stressed within NATO itself.

After the approval by the US Congress, Russia took retaliatory measures. Threatening to use its power of veto at the UN, it stalled the Kosovo process and had it removed from the organization's agenda. Based on a decree signed by Putin in July, Russia declared a unilateral end to the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. 150 days after July 13, i.e. from December 10, Russia can start massing troops and military forces on its northwestern and southwestern borders.

Formally, the US anti-missile system is supposed to be a shield against rockets fired by Iran towards Europe. All of the evidence put forth by Russia that this shield will be technically unable to stop missiles in time when they are fired from such a distance has failed to convince the Americans. One gets the impression that the objective for the installation of this system is the installation itself. By unilaterally pulling out of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, Russia took measures to secure its own western borders.

At the Eastern Gates

On August 16, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summitin Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, the six member nations – Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan-- signed a long-term treaty of goodwill, friendship and collaboration. Despite the fact that other agreements were signed, the Russian President claimed that the summit's biggest achievement was this very treaty, because “this document is an excellent basis for the overall development of the SCO and joint activities both with member countries as well as observer nations.” Over the past years, the status of observer nation has been given to India, Mongolia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran.

The transformations occurring within the SCO (from joint anti-terror activities to intentions of dictating terms in a new world order) are naturally beginning to attract increased attention from the US, European institutions and NATO. The organization has massive potential, not only because it has united countries whose territory covers 3/5ths (30 million sq. km) of the Eurasian continent and where 1/4 th of the world population lives (1.5 billion people). The main reason is that the SCO has been unprecedented as an organization which has united countries that set the trend in Asia and has set out to converge the geopolitical aims of its member countries, who are all neighbors with common borders.

Although the common opinion among American and Russian analysts is that the SCO is anti-NATO in nature, global geopolitical developments have supported the idea that it is in fact anti-American in its approach. There is the opinion that the conflicting ideas within the SCO, especially within its two powerful members Russia and China, will not allow these countries to pose any serious obstacles to America's expansion. Western analysts were, until recently, certain that these two countries did not trust each other enough to extend collaboration into the military arena and create a military bloc.

The tolerance with which American and Western European structures were treating the SCO can be explained by the general concern about the activities of radical groups in Central and Eastern Asian countries and their periodic activation, as well as drug trafficking. But China and Russia now have a more serious common concern – the US missile shield. Of course, the system which will be installed in Europe is not a problem for China, but the Chinese are beginning to understand Russia's nervous stance because there is the possibility of a similar shield being set up in the east as part of a US-Japan-Australia military agreement. Although formally this shield will be set up to protect against missile attacks from North Korea, this explanation does not satisfy China in the same way that the Russians are not convinced by the rationale behind a missile shield in Europe.

Since 2005, the SCO's high level meetings have been attended by Mongolia, India, Pakistan and Iran, who are all observers. The President of Turkmenistan was also present at the August 16 meeting. After the Russia-Kazakhastan-Turkmenistan agreement in May this year which is going to supply Europe with gas from Turkmenistan – dubbed by analysts as “a Russian gas victory in Central Asia” – Turkmenistan's presence in the SCO seems very logical.

On the other hand, only Turkmenistan was absent among the Central Asian countries of the former Soviet Union in the SCO and this country will probably fail to maintain its earlier stance of political neutrality. Iranian President Ahmadinejad not only received an invitation to participate but also managed to speak out against “certain countries” (read USA), voicing Iran's official opinion that it was wrong to talk to other countries from a position of power because it would lead to a reply in kind. The speeches by Ahmadinejad and Putin impressed as a well-rehearsed duet. “The world is rapidly changing in the 21 st century, the bloc mindset is a thing of the past and new centers of influence and economic development are appearing. Russia and the other members of the SCO are for the strengthening of a multi-polar international system – a system which gives all countries equal opportunities for security and development,” the Russian President said in his speech.

One should also note that, unlike other international organizations, decisions taken in the SCO are done so on the basis of the strictest consensus, i.e. in unison. Although India, Pakistan and Iran have all expressed a desire to be SCO members, a decision has been taken to improve internal organizational mechanisms for the time being. After this, the SCO will probably begin to expand, covering the whole length of Russia's southeastern border.

Laura Baghdasaryan